“正午阳光——青年学者论坛”是金融学院定期举办的以院内师生参与为主的学术交流活动，为全院专家学者之间、师生之间、南开金融与国际国内学术界之间提供了难得的交流机会。本学期“正午阳光”论坛初心不改，扬帆远航再出发，致力于营造学院学校科研氛围，推动师生学术科研水平不断提升！

2025年春季学期 “正午阳光——青年学者论坛”第九期活动安排如下：

讲座题目：TFP Growth Regimes and the State Dependence of the Slope of the Phillips Curve

主讲人：黄翰国

山东大学经济学院金融系助理研究员。博士毕业于美国加利福尼亚大学戴维斯分校，他的研究领域主要包括宏观经济学与货币经济学、产业组织、公司金融与应用宏观计量经济学。

点评人：夏天

南开大学金融学院准任副教授。加州大学戴维斯分校博士，研究领域为国际金融和货币经济学。

讲座时间：2024年5月29日（周四）12:00 - 13:30

讲座地点：金融学院116教室

内容摘要

What is the relationship between the long-run productivity growth and the short-run trade-off between inflation and economic slack? This paper studies the state dependence of the slope of the Phillips curve on the trend productivity growth. By merging two longitudinal databases, I present estimates of the “average” New Keynesian Phillips curve for 17 advanced economies across TFP growth regimes since 1890. Following the state-of-the-art method, I estimate the New Keynesian Phillips curve using trilemma monetary shocks as instruments and find that the Phillips curve is steeper (flatter) in high (low) growth regime. My proposed mechanism is qualitatively in tune with the recent trends of flattening Phillips curve and productivity slowdown amid rising market concentration in major advanced economies.