“正午阳光——青年学者论坛”是金融学院定期举办的以院内师生参与为主的学术交流活动，为全院专家学者之间、师生之间、南开金融与国际国内学术界之间提供了难得的交流机会。本学期“正午阳光”论坛初心不改，扬帆远航再出发，致力于营造学院学校科研氛围，推动师生学术科研水平不断提升！

2025年春季学期 “正午阳光——青年学者论坛”第五期活动安排如下：

讲座题目：Zodiac Year, Cautious Cheer: Analyst Superstitions and Forcasting Behavior

主讲人：张铧兮

南开大学金融学院副教授。清华大学五道口金融学院博士后，博士毕业于澳门大学，期间在加州大学伯克利分校哈斯商学院联合培养。研究领域：盈余操纵、审计、分析师预测、ESG、绿色专利。

点评人：康炜隆

清华大学五道口金融学院博士生。本科毕业于厦门大学经济学院。研究领域：公司治理、机构投资者、房地产金融。

讲座时间：2025年4月16日（周三）12:00-13:30

讲座地点：金融学院116教室

内容摘要

Financial analysts serve as key information intermediaries by interpreting complex data, reducing information asymmetry, and providing forward-looking insights into firm performance. However, little is known about how personal beliefs and superstitions influence their professional judgment. This study investigates the impact of zodiac year superstition—a culturally rooted, time-varying belief in bad luck—on analysts’ forecasting behavior. We find that analysts issue significantly less optimistic earnings forecasts during their zodiac years. This effect is more pronounced among analysts who are younger, less experienced, from rural or less developed regions, or affiliated with smaller brokerage firms, and it becomes stronger under heightened market volatility and policy uncertainty. Additionally, analysts exhibit higher productivity during their zodiac years, suggesting a shift toward greater caution and diligence. These findings underscore the influence of deeply embedded cultural beliefs on professional behavior and contribute to the broader literature on behavioral finance.