“正午阳光——青年学者论坛”是金融学院定期举办的以院内师生参与为主的学术交流活动，为全院专家学者之间、师生之间、南开金融与国际国内学术界之间提供了难得的交流机会。本学期“正午阳光”论坛初心不改，扬帆远航再出发，致力于营造学院学校科研氛围，推动师生学术科研水平不断提升！

2024年秋季学期 “正午阳光——青年学者论坛”第一期活动安排如下：

讲座题目：An Experiment on Probabilistic Inference from Signal Frequency

主讲人：权五燮

南开大学金融学院助理教授。博士毕业于俄亥俄州立大学经济系。研究领域：信息经济学，行为与实验经济学。

点评人：徐硕

北京外国语大学国际商学院国际经济系讲师。博士毕业于俄亥俄州立大学经济系。研究领域：信息设计，机制设计，实验经济学。

讲座时间：2024年9月26日（周四）12:00-13:30

讲座地点：金融学院116教室

内容摘要：

In real life, it is uncommon to know precisely how an information source sends a signal based on the states. Instead, the frequency with which an information source sends signals is more noticeable. For instance, we expect a left-leaning media to predominantly send left-leaning signals rather than right-leaning ones, and vice versa for a right-leaning media. How does a decision-maker make probabilistic inferences in such situations? We explore this question through a series of laboratory experiments. We find that: 1) when the prior probability is known, subjects generally consider frequent signals less informative, which is reasonable, as highly informative signals mathematically cannot be highly frequent. However, 2) when the prior probability is unknown, this comparative static no longer applies, and frequent signals may brainwash subjects into believing that the corresponding states are more likely.